Spring 2023 Lake Tahoe Market Overview

Spring 2023 Lake Tahoe Market Overview

How This Winter’s Historic Snowfall May Affect Real Estate in Lake Tahoe

Historically, Lake Tahoe Real Estate sees a positive bump from heavy winters. With the most snowfall on record officially being broken in 2023, there are mixed ideas on how the real estate market will play out.  There will be demand from those who love the snow and have been able to enjoy some amazing days on their skis and snowboards.  There may also be some homeowners who have endured their first big winter and may have realized that life is not for them.  If the demand continues to outpace the supply, we should see a solid year in real estate and hope that values will hold.  If the market does get saturated with new listings this summer, then that could possibly trigger values to soften.  Most experienced agents are expecting another good year, with buyer demand increasing along with the temperatures.

Economic Factors Still in Play

While the market continues to hang on to most of the value gained from 2021, many buyers have sidelined their search while inflation remains high, interest rates are surging, and the stock markets are struggling. The US Stock Markets were all down big in 2022 with the S&P 500 Down 19.4%, the Dow Jones Down 8.8%, and the NASDAQ Down 33.1% at the same time, Interest rates have jumped, but the first quarter of 2023 bounced back nicely in the stock markets and mortgage rates are starting to fall, with the expectation that this trend should continue for the rest of 2023.  With Silicon Valley Bank failing, there have been some concerns about the greater banking system, however, everything seems to have stabilized and the largest banks in the world are mostly well-secured, unlike in 2008. 
By comparison, in 2008, the S&P 500 was down 38.5%, the Dow Jones was down 33.8% the NASDAQ was down 40.5% and the 30 Year Mortgage rate was around 6.6%.  So, while there are some indicators to be concerned about, the current market is not what it was in the Great Recession and residential real estate will not be the cause of any major issues.  Commercial Real Estate is a market to watch as many large Commercial Investors have loans expiring over the next several years, which may cause some pain, but lending practices are strong and very regulated, so we will not see a repeat of 2008. However, there may be other factors that hit the economy and have an impact on the markets.
Below, our Lake Tahoe real estate expert breaks down recent activity in four primary markets we serve, and offers some insight into what the summer months will bring:
Incline Village 2023 First Quarter Stats
13 – Single Family Home Sales – Down 64%
$27,386,000 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 75%
$2,106,615 – Average Sale Price – Down 31%
$1,725,000 – Median Sale Price – Up 15%
163 – Average Days on Market – Up 6%
15 – Condos/Town Homes Sales – Down 62%
$21,466,000 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 50%
$1,431,067 – Average Sale Price – Up 36%
$885,000 – Median Sale Price – Flat 0%
158 – Average Days on Market – Up 93%
Consistent inflationary pressure, rising interest rates, and record snowfall have finally caught up with the Incline Village Real Estate Market.  Tax benefits and limited supply have always been insulators for Incline and compared to other regions in Lake Tahoe, the values are still high, but it was only a matter of time before this market started to soften.  This is the first quarter in several where the Average Sale Price came down for single-family homes. Given the record snowfalls this winter, we may see a rebound as the snow starts to melt and summer arrives.  Active listings are still low, with only 101 Active listings in Incline, which is down 4% from Q1 2022, so that should help insulate values.  Stayed tuned!
North Lake Tahoe/Truckee 2023 First Quarter Stats:
191 – Residential Sales – Down 44%
$272,000,000 – Dollar Volume Sales – Down 53%
$1,424,348 – Average Sale Price – Down 15%
$920,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 3%
539 – Active Listings – Down 9%
76 – Average Days on Market – Up 38%
Time will tell if the decrease in numbers across the Lake Tahoe Market is due to snow or other pressures on the market.  Historically, the Lake Tahoe Market has had a strong year after a big winter.  If history repeats itself, then the summer of 2023 should be a great one for real estate.  Other negative factors may also be at play, like interest rates and tougher loan scrutiny.  Active listings are still down significantly, so this should help the market hold on to some value and the first quarter sample size may not be enough to make any major market predictions, but these numbers would indicate a softening market going into the busy summer selling season.
South Lake Tahoe – NV 2023 First Quarter Stats:
24 – Residential Sales – Down 60%
$41,299,000 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 65%
$1,720,791 – Average Sale Price – Down 13%
$1,180,000 – Median Sale Price – Up 18%
117 – Active Listings – Down 10%
126 – Average Days on Market – Up 9%
South Lake Tahoe on the Nevada side is showing mixed messages on where the market stands.  With Average prices falling 13%, Median prices are up 18%.  Active Listings continue to be low, which should help values hold for now.  If supply increases dramatically this summer, that could change.
South Lake Tahoe – CA 2023 First Quarter Stats:
73 – Residential Sales – Down 49%
$57,822,680 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 54%
$792,092 – Average Sale Price – Down 8%
$635,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 14%
112 – Average Days on Market – Up 35%
South Lake Tahoe on the CA side is slowly softening like many in the region.  Days on the Market are up 35%, while volumes decline and values also follow suit.  This could be the result of big snowfall and an inability to sell homes due to record snow, so the summer will be very interesting to watch as the snow melts and new listings hit the market.
Reno – 2022 Year End Stats:
788 – Residential Sales – Down 31%
$462,868,309 – Dollar Volume Sales – Down 36%
$587,396 – Average Sale Price – Down 8%
$480,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 10%
2,025 – Active Listings – Down 10%
103 – Average Days on Market – Up 35%
Following the national trend of low inventory, the Reno Real Estate market has been trying to hold on to big value increases in the last couple of years.  Days on the Market continue to tick upward, but Active Listings are still trending lower.  Average and Median Pricing are starting to soften, but many are speculating that a snowy winter may have had more of an impact on the market than anything else.  With interest rates over 6%, many buyers have been priced out of the market, but the hope and speculation is that interest should be on the decline for the rest of 2023, which should help real estate markets.
These rocky times are exactly when you want to work with market experts to achieve your real estate goals.  Team Blair Tahoe is consistently one of the highest performing teams in the region, with the backing of the #1 Real Estate Company in the U.S.  This powerful combination is an excellent resource with decades of experience to tap into for questions around a shifting market.  Team Blair Tahoe not only has the experience and track record, but we also have great resources and referral partners to help our clients succeed. 
A big sign of consistency is how a team performs in good years, but more importantly how they perform in tough years.  Team Blair Tahoe has stayed at the top of the dollar volume in Lake Tahoe consistently for nearly a decade and has outperformed the general market while several competitors saw a 40-50% decline in business in 2022.  There has never been a better time to be a buyer in this market, there are opportunities out there and we can help!

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