Lake Tahoe Market Summer-y

Moving into the second half of the year, the Lake Tahoe real estate market continues its steady return to a more “normal”, pre-pandemic cycle. Our traditional listing season is in full swing, with properties at every price point coming to market each week. With buyer demand as strong as ever, the recent surge in listings is welcomed by agents whose clients have been on the hunt for months. Historic snowfall made it difficult to tour homes through much of the winter, while raised interest rates and recession whispers caused many buyers to pause their search. Today, some positive economic indicators as well as a few rounds of market-driven price reductions, are remotivating searches. Well-priced homes are moving on and off the market, with fewer bidding wars than we’ve seen in the past couple of years.

 

In summary; we see that buyer-seller dynamics are slowly equalizing after a tumultuous three years. Lake Tahoe continues to hold lifestyle investment appeal and the properties are retaining value better than most areas of the country. However, Lake Tahoe is composed of many different submarkets, each with its own unique features, and trends in one area don’t necessarily hold water in others. Comparing sales records of the same submarket year over year is often the best way to spot trends. 

 

Below are some recent Y0Y sales figures comparing the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023. Note: Figures are recent as of July 1, 2023.

 

39 – Single Family Home Sales – Down 49%

$142,268,000 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 41%

$3,647,897 – Average Sale Price – Up 15%

$2,375,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 3%

135 – Average Days on Market – Up 40%

—

41 – Condos/Town Homes Sales – Down 67%

$47,266,323 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 48%

$1,152,837 – Average Sale Price – Down 1%

$875,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 8%

106 – Average Days on Market – Up 42%

 

Incline Village has seen significant sales volume declines, but values are holding well. With only 171 active listings as of the end of June, we are still well below the active listings of 268 in June 2019. Days on the market continue to rise, but they are getting back to normal numbers. With Nevada tax benefits and being a highly sought-after resort town, Incline Village looks to be poised for another strong summer as one of the most sought-after communities on the lake.

 

448 – Residential Sales – Down 39%

$621,326,229 – Dollar Volume Sales – Down 48%

$1,386,888 – Average Sale Price – Down 14%

$950,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 10%

1,150 – Active Listings – Down 12%

68 – Average Days on Market – Up 24%

 

With only 1,150 Active Listings in the Truckee/North Lake California region, we still have only about 60% of what we normally have this time of year. Sales volume is down, and pricing has softened a bit, but coming out of a huge snowfall winter, which slowed the market in the first quarter, these numbers could be ready to rebound as we move further into 2023. 68 Days on the market is well below our normal of 90 days. As the market continues to normalize with visitors and locals alike enjoying skiing, boating, biking, etc., we may see a summer selling season that looks like 2019 versus 2021.

 

62 – Residential Sales – Down 41%

$131,447,500 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 33%

$2,120,120 – Average Sale Price – Up 14%

$1,113,000 – Median Sale Price – Up 12%

203 – Active Listings – Down 10%

142 – Average Days on Market – Down 11%

 

South Lake Tahoe on the Nevada, which has been a bit of an outlier in the Lake Tahoe Market as we have seen over the years, has seen a nice jump in values. Sales volume is down and days on the market are up, but the Average and Median prices have jumped 14% and 12% accordingly. This can be the available listings skewing the numbers a bit as there have only been 62 sales all year, but it is nice to see values holding. The Nevada tax benefits should remain a key insulator for these values.

 

162 – Residential Sales – Down 50%

$132,454,330 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 55%

$817,619 – Average Sale Price – Down 11%

$662,500 – Median Sale Price – Down 12%

85 – Average Days on Market – Up 21%

 

South Lake Tahoe on the CA side is nearly the opposite of the Nevada side. Volumes are down significantly, and values have softened double digits as well. Generally, the most affordable section of Lake Tahoe, it seems reasonable that prices were due to softening as we move toward a more normal market. This market could very well be impacted by big snowfall and a very slow first quarter, so the third quarter will be interesting to watch and see if the numbers balance out.

 

1,883 – Residential Sales – Down 25%

$1,802,805,686 – Dollar Volume Sales – Up 5%

$957,411 – Average Sale Price – Up 44%

$500,000 – Median Sale Price – Down 8%

3,517 – Active Listings – Down 21%

97 – Average Days on Market – Up 31%

 

Reno has had a very strong first half of 2023. While sales volume is down, dollar volume increased by 5%. Average prices are up 44%, which shows why the market can do more with less. This is a very good sign for the entire Reno/Tahoe market because a healthy Reno market helps the entire region stay strong.

 

The median price dropping is usually an indicator of a flattening market, but as we have discussed in the past, the intense market conditions and steep rise in values were going to be hard to sustain. So we are very optimistic about Reno in 2023.