2022 Lake Tahoe Real Estate Wrap Up

2022 Lake Tahoe Real Estate Wrap Up

How Did We Get Here?

As mortgage rates have more than doubled in the last several months, the real estate market nationwide has begun to slow. After a record year in 2021, change was inevitable!
What has brought about the recent market slowdown? It’s complicated. It has been accelerated by rising interest rates as well as turmoil in the stock market. The red-hot market of 2021 was a big contributor to out-of-control inflation, causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to try and control inflation. Despite cooling in sales volume and dollar volume, record low inventory has helped hold values in many places, with median sale prices having grown to $370,000 nationally, up from $358,000 in 2021. Year-end market reports for Lake Tahoe and Reno, show that local real estate is trending closely to the rest of the country.

Will Lake Tahoe Real Estate Hold Its Value?

Inventory remains very low in the Lake Tahoe Market and the investment in lifestyle continues to be a key driver with many potential buyers willing to invest in optimizing their lifestyle. With all eyes on interest rates and the stock market as indicators for how real estate will navigate the headwinds, Lake Tahoe continues to hold onto value. Sales Volume is down 33% and Dollar Volume is down 34% on average around the lake, which are both slightly better than the national trends of 35% down in both. Given these large shifts, the Tahoe market has moved from an intense seller’s market to a more balanced, deal-friendly environment. Deals are still coming together and both buyers and sellers are willing to work together, which has been very helpful in maintaining value in Lake Tahoe Real Estate. As volume figures settle back to a more normal market cycle, values are still high and holding strong. It is important to remember that 2021 was an anomaly that was going to be hard to sustain and as the dust settles, the Lake Tahoe Real Estate numbers are looking great when compared to pre-COVID.

The Lifestyle Factor

In keeping with the lifestyle trend, Lake Tahoe Real Estate usually feels a positive bump from big snow years. 2022 closed the year with big snowfall and January 2023 kicked off with nearly 3 feet of new snow, with more storms in the forecast. This is historically a good sign for another strong summer in local real estate.
While the market continues to hang on to most of the value gained from 2021, many buyers have sidelined their search while inflation remains high, interest rates are surging, and the stock markets are struggling. The U.S. Stock Markets are all down big in 2022 with the S&P 500 Down 19.4%, the Dow Jones Down 8.8%, and the NASDAQ Down 33.1% at the same time, interest rates have jumped with the 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate at 6.25% (Wells Fargo 12/14/22).
Many “experts” are suggesting that 2023 may be a bumpy ride, but others are expecting markets to rebound in 2023. By comparison, in 2008, the S&P 500 was down 38.5%, the Dow Jones was down 33.8% the NASDAQ was down 40.5% and the 30 Year Mortgage rate was around 6.6%. So while there are some indicators to be concerned about, the current market is not what it was in the Great Recession.

Experience When It Counts

Uncertain times are exactly when you want to work with experienced local experts who have seen and navigated past storms. Our team is an excellent resource with decades of experience to tap into for questions about a shifting market. Team Blair Tahoe not only has the experience and track record, but we also have great resources and referral partners to help our clients succeed. A big sign of consistency is how a team performs in good years, but more importantly how they perform in tough years. Team Blair Tahoe has stayed at the top of the dollar volume in Lake Tahoe consistently for nearly a decade and has outperformed the general market while several competitors saw a 40-50% decline in business in 2022. There has never been a better time to be a buyer in this market, there are opportunities out there and we can help!

2022 Lake Tahoe Basin Real Estate Market Breakdown

Incline Village 2022 Year-End Stats

128 – Single Family Home Sales – Down 40%
$416,482,888 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 49%
$2,932,978 – Average Sale Price – Down 12%
$2,342,500 – Median Sale Price – Up 15%
81 – Average Days on Market – Up 19%
29 – Condos/Town Homes Sales – Down 44%
$143,269,950 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 36%
$1,119,296 – Average Sale Price – Up 6%
$950,000 – Median Sale Price – Up 15%
99 – Average Days on Market – Up 8%
Tax benefits and limited supply have always been insulators for the luxury enclave of Incline Village. Days on the market continue to rise, which is most likely a contributing factor in seeing the Average Price of Single-Family homes come down for the first time all year, but Median Pricing is up year over year, which means that values are still strong. With 84 active listings on the market, there are some great opportunities in Incline Village. While Nevada Residency has its benefits, this market may see more softening than others due to the high values.

South Lake Tahoe – NV 2022 Year-End Stats

174 – Residential Sales – Down 33%
$304,963,777 – Dollar Volume Sold – Down 43%
$1,752,665 – Average Sale Price – Down 14%
$1,042,500 – Median Sale Price – Up 4%
321 – Active Listings – Down 18%
97 – Average Days on Market – Up 15%
South Lake Tahoe on the Nevada side is showing most of the signs of a declining market, except for Median Sale Price, which has risen 4%. Many of these market statistics are following closely with National Trends.

South Lake Tahoe – CA 2022 Year-End Stats

626 – Residential Sales – Down 20%
$542,600,391 – Dollar Volume Sales – Down 18%
$866,774 – Average Sale Price – Up 3%
$697,500 – Median Sale Price – Up 3%
74 – Average Days on Market – Up 4%
South Lake CA continues to hold strong! Sales Volume and Dollar Volume are trending much better than the National Averages and both Average and Median Pricing are hanging in with modest gains year over year. As one of the more affordable locations around the lake, South Lake should see more steady interest as buyers manage their buying power with higher interest rates.

Reno – 2022 Year-End Stats

4,640 – Residential Sales – Down 21%
$2,979,946,346 – Dollar Volume Sales – Down 14%
$642,229 – Average Sale Price – Up 9%
$530,000 – Median Sale Price – Up 12%
6,918 – Active Listings – Down 5%
73 – Average Days on Market – Up 15%
While Days on the Market are rising, values also continue to rise in Reno. Active Listings are down 5% Year Over Year, which should help insulate pricing as demand remains strong. Mortgage Rates will have a big impact on the Reno Market, so time will tell how much higher rates will impact affordability, but Reno continues to show resiliency due to tax benefits as well as many new businesses relocating or establishing roots in Nevada.

Work With Us

Experience the power of Team Blair Tahoe, where your dreams of property ownership in Lake Tahoe become a reality. With our seasoned leadership, unwavering ambition, and genuine passion, rest assured that you have a dedicated agent by your side, guiding you every step of the way. Join forces with us and let's make your Lake Tahoe dreams come true!

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